Keep a separate betting bank you can afford to lose, stake a small fixed share of it on each bet, often 1% to 2%, and never raise stakes to chase losses. Long losing runs are normal, especially at bigger odds, so stakes have to be small enough to survive them.
Set a betting bank
A betting bank is money set aside only for betting, which you could lose without it affecting bills or savings. Keep it separate, so you always know where you stand.
Split it into units. With a £500 bank and 100 units, one unit is £5. Stake in units, and you can compare results across months without the numbers being skewed by bigger or smaller stakes.
Losing runs are longer than you think
This table shows the chance of at least one losing run of a given length somewhere in 1,000 bets, assuming each bet's chance matches its odds.
| Odds | 8 in a row | 10 in a row | 15 in a row | 20 in a row |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2.0 | 86% | 39% | 1% | Under 1% |
| 3.0 | Over 99% | Over 99% | 53% | 9% |
| 5.0 | Over 99% | Over 99% | Over 99% | 91% |
At 5.0, a run of 15 losses in 1,000 bets is close to certain. At 2.0, ten in a row happens in about four out of ten 1,000 bet stretches. Your stakes need to survive the runs that are likely at your odds.
Level stakes or a percentage of the bank
Level stakes means the same amount every time. Percentage staking means a fixed share of your current bank, so stakes shrink after losses and grow after wins.
| Stake | Level stakes | Percentage of bank |
|---|---|---|
| 1% | 90 units | 90.4 units |
| 2% | 80 units | 81.7 units |
| 5% | 50 units | 59.9 units |
| 10% | 0 units | 34.9 units |
Percentage staking can't hit zero, and it slows the damage in a bad run. Level stakes are simpler and recover faster afterwards. Either works at 1% to 2%. Neither works at 10%.
Rules that protect a bank
- Don't raise stakes after losses. That's the Martingale in disguise.
- Don't top up the bank from other money mid month. Decide on a limit in advance.
- Review stakes monthly, not after each bet.
- Keep a record of every bet, so you know your real results.
Related tools:Kelly criterion calculatorBet calculator
Where the Kelly criterion fits
If you have a measurable edge, the Kelly criterion sizes stakes by how big it is. Most people use a quarter or half of the Kelly stake, which usually lands close to the 1% to 2% range anyway.
Work out a Kelly stake.Kelly criterion calculator →Questions people ask
What percentage of my bankroll should I bet?
Most people use 1% to 2% per bet. Higher odds mean longer losing runs, so stake towards the lower end on long shots.
What is a unit in betting?
A fixed share of your betting bank, often 1%. Tipsters give stakes in units so followers with different banks can copy them.
Should I increase stakes when I'm winning?
Percentage staking does that for you, gradually. Big jumps after a good run are risky, because good runs end too.